Coronavirus projection model death counts from March 6th through April 4th: How we get from 13 to 580 aggregate deaths in America

Yesterday we released Revision 1 of our Pandemic Projection Model that shows 2.1 million coronavirus deaths in America by July 4th if nothing is done to stop the spread.

For those who don’t usually think in terms of exponential progressions, the numbers seem impossible. But in fact, we’re already tracking very closely in terms of reality vs. the projected numbers.

Here, I’m publishing the expected coronavirus aggregate death count that we expect to see from March 6th (today) through April 4th, at which point the model currently projects 580 aggregate deaths in the USA.

The number of deaths being reported today for America is 15, meaning the real world numbers are already one day ahead of the projection model (which only predicts 13 deaths as of today).

Track these numbers each day to see where we are on the exponential growth curve

How do we get to 580 deaths? As the projection shows below, each day is tied to a projected aggregate death count. For example by March 15th, the model currently predicts 54 total deaths in the USA. (That’s not 54 new deaths on March 15th, but 54 total deaths all the way up to March 15th.)

By March 20th, that number is expected to be 104 deaths.

If the real numbers that we observe each day turn out to be lower than these projected numbers, it means the model is too pessimistic and we will re-calibrate the model based on incoming real-world data. However, if the real numbers turn out to be higher than what’s projected here, it would indicate that more than 2.16 million Americans would be expected to die by July 4th unless something is done to radically halt travel and social interaction.

In other words, the numbers you see below lead directly to 2.16 million deaths by July 4th unless something is done to stop the spread:

March 1: 3 aggregate deaths
March 2: 5
March 3: 6
March 4: 8
March 5: 10
March 6: 13 aggregate deaths
March 7: 15
March 8: 18
March 9: 22
March 10: 26
March 11: 30
March 12: 35
March 13: 40
March 14: 47
March 15: 54
March 16: 62
March 17: 71
March 18: 81
March 19: 92
March 20: 104
March 21: 118
March 22: 134
March 23: 151
March 24: 170
March 25: 191
March 26: 215
March 27: 241
March 28: 270
March 29: 303
March 30: 338
March 31: 378
April 1: 421
April 2: 469
April 3: 521
April 4: 580 aggregate deaths

That’s how we get to 580 deaths by April 4th, according to the current projections.

We hope to see far fewer deaths during these days, indicating aggressive steps are being taken to achieve social isolation and distancing. Most likely, President Trump will declare a national emergency in either March or April. Extreme restrictions on travel will be put into place beginning in April and accelerating through May.

Those efforts may substantially halt the exponential growth curve of this virus. When that happens, we will add a new “suppression” factor to the projection model and recalculate the months of June, July and August.

The more aggressive the shutting down of society, the higher the suppression factor becomes. Ultimately, the only way to halt the spread of the virus is to get the R0 value below 1.0. Once that is achieved, the virus fades out within a matter of a few months. But achieving R0 of 1.0 seems almost impossible, which is why China couldn’t contain it and no country on the planet has been able to stop its transmission.

That’s how we got to over 6,500 infections in South Korea, of course. Or 4,700+ infections in Iran.

The U.S. is currently on track to see 2.1 million deaths by July 4th unless something is done to stop the spread

The United States is on the same exponential growth curve as South Korea, Italy and Iran. We’re just a few weeks behind them on the same curve.

Again, most people don’t understand that this virus is an “exponential track” that seems very small at first but rapidly explodes into an uncontrolled, sustained epidemic that spreads beyond containment. That’s why U.S. governors and even the President are still getting bad information from advisors… because most bureaucrats can’t do math.

It may already be too late to prevent millions of infections in America, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths. Those end results are very likely already “baked in” and cannot be avoided. It all depends on how quickly government officials shut down society and force the American population into strict isolation protocols. Only then will a “suppression factor” begin to slow the explosive, exponential growth curve.

It’s pure mathematics at this point. And you can’t argue with math, just like you can’t negotiate with the virus.

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